College Football 2006-07

[mtm4319]

I have a particular interest in this season because I'll be volunteering for the Senior Bowl (the all-star game held three weeks after the bowls end). No arguments from me that Ohio State is #1, but Southern Cal at #2 is about five spots too high. That's where they finished last year with Bush and Leinart, for crying out loud.

*Edited because I'm a bit paranoid*

[mtm4319]

My top 25 after Saturday's games:

1. Ohio State
2. Auburn
3. West Virginia
4. Florida
5. Southern California
6. Louisiana State
7. Michigan
8. Texas
9. Georgia
10. Notre Dame
11. Louisville
12. Virginia Tech
13. Tennessee
14. Oregon
15. Iowa
16. Oklahoma
17. Boston College
18. Georgia Tech
19. Clemson
20. Florida State
21. Texas Christian
22. Arizona State
23. California
24. Nebraska
25. Rutgers

[mtm4319]

After this week's games:

( 1) 1. Ohio State (beat Penn State 28-6)
( 2) 2. Auburn (beat Buffalo 38-7)
( 3) 3. West Virginia (beat East Carolina 27-10)
( 4) 4. Florida (beat Kentucky 26-7)
( 5) 5. Southern California (beat Arizona 20-3)
( 6) 6. Louisiana State (beat Tulane 49-7)
( 7) 7. Michigan (beat Wisconsin 27-13)
( 8) 8. Texas (beat Iowa State 37-14)
( 9) 9. Georgia (beat Colorado 14-13)
(10) 10. Notre Dame (beat Michigan State 40-37)
(11) 11. Louisville (beat Kansas State 24-6)
(12) 12. Virginia Tech (beat Cincinnati 29-13)
(13) 13. Tennessee (beat Marshall 33-7)
(14) 14. Oregon (idle)
(15) 15. Iowa (beat Illinois 24-7)
(16) 16. Oklahoma (beat Middle Tennessee State 59-0)
(18) 17. Georgia Tech (beat Virginia 24-7)
(19) 18. Clemson (beat North Carolina 52-7)
(20) 19. Florida State (beat Rice 55-7)
(23) 20. California (beat #22 Arizona State 49-21)
(21) 21. Texas Christian (idle)
(24) 22. Nebraska (beat Troy 56-0)
(25) 23. Rutgers (beat Howard 56-7)
(---) 24. Arkansas (beat Alabama 24-23)
(---) 25. Missouri (beat Ohio 31-6)

Falling out of the top 25:
(17) ---. Boston College (lost to North Carolina State 15-17)
(22) ---. Arizona State (lost to California 49-21)

Not much movement this week. The highest-ranked team in my poll to lose was #17 Boston College (#14 Oregon is idle) -- although some definitely came close. I was tempted to bump Georgia down a spot or two, but Notre Dame gave up 37 points (and I'm not all that thrilled to have them #10 already), and Louisville was only average. The same goes for most of the top 10; the only team that seemed overly impressive was LSU, and Texas eventually pulled away late in the first half against Iowa State.

As for my two top-25 entries, I chose Arkansas because they were the only unranked 3-win team to defeat a ranked opponent (which they did against Alabama today). I chose Missouri because they were the only unranked 4-0 team to win all its games by 10 points or more. Boston College would be #26; they did beat a ranked opponent (Clemson) but losing to N.C. State is almost as bad as losing to Colorado would be.

Rutgers might make into one or both of the "real" top 25 rankings this week; watch out for them. They've been on the brink for about the past 3 years (going 5-7, 4-7, and 7-5). Here's their remaining schedule:

09/29 @ South Florida
10/07 [off]
10/14 @ Navy
10/21 @ Pittsburgh
10/29 Connecticut
11/04 [off]
11/09 Louisville
11/18 @ Cincinnati
11/25 Syracuse
12/02 @ #4 West Virginia

They could conceivably be 8-0 heading into the home contest against Louisville. At Pitt will be a tough one, though.

[mtm4319]

After this week's games:

( 1) 1. Ohio State (beat Iowa 38-17)
( 2) 2. Auburn (beat South Carolina 24-17)
( 3) 3. West Virginia (idle)
( 4) 4. Florida (beat Alabama 28-13)
( 5) 5. Southern California (beat Washington State 28-22)
( 6) 6. Louisiana State (beat Mississippi State 48-17)
( 7) 7. Michigan (beat Minnesota 28-14)
( 8) 8. Texas (beat Sam Houston State 56-3)
(10) 9. Notre Dame (beat Purdue 35-21)
(11) 10. Louisville (idle)
( 9) 11. Georgia (beat Mississippi 14-9)
(13) 12. Tennessee (beat Memphis 41-7)
(14) 13. Oregon (beat Arizona State 48-13)
(17) 14. Georgia Tech (beat #12 Virginia Tech 38-27)
(16) 15. Oklahoma (idle)
(18) 16. Clemson (beat Louisiana Tech 51-0)
(12) 17. Virginia Tech (lost to #17 Georgia Tech 27-38)
(20) 18. California (beat Oregon State 41-13)
(19) 19. Florida State (idle)
(15) 20. Iowa (lost to #1 Ohio State 17-38)
(22) 21. Nebraska (beat Kansas 39-31)
(23) 22. Rutgers (beat South Florida 22-20)
(25) 23. Missouri (beat Colorado 28-13)
(24) 24. Arkansas (idle)
(---) 25. Boise State (beat Utah 36-3)

Out:
(21) ---. TCU (lost to BYU 17-31)

[mtm4319]

(01) 01. (6-0) Ohio State (beat Bowling Green 35-7)
(04) 02. (6-0) Florida (beat #6 LSU 23-10)
(03) 03. (5-0) West Virginia (beat Mississippi State 42-14)
(05) 04. (5-0) Southern California (beat Washington 26-20)
(07) 05. (6-0) Michigan (beat Michigan State 31-13)
(08) 06. (5-1) Texas (beat #15 Oklahoma 28-10)
(02) 07. (5-1) Auburn (lost to #24 Arkansas 10-27)
(09) 08. (5-1) Notre Dame (beat Stanford 31-10)
(10) 09. (5-0) Louisville (beat Middle Tennessee State 44-17)
(12) 10. (5-1) Tennessee (beat #11 Georgia 51-33)
(06) 11. (4-2) Louisiana State (lost to #4 Florida 10-23)
(14) 12. (5-1) Georgia Tech (beat Maryland 27-23)
(18) 13. (5-1) California (beat #13 Oregon 45-24)
(16) 14. (5-1) Clemson (beat Wake Forest 27-17)
(11) 15. (5-1) Georgia (lost to #12 Tennessee 33-51)
(17) 16. (4-1) Virginia Tech (idle)
(24) 17. (4-1) Arkansas (beat #2 Auburn 27-10)
(20) 18. (5-1) Iowa (beat Purdue 47-17)
(13) 19. (5-1) Oregon (lost to #18 California 24-45)
(21) 20. (5-1) Nebraska (beat Iowa State 28-14)
(22) 21. (5-0) Rutgers (idle)
(23) 22. (6-0) Missouri (beat Texas Tech 38-21)
(25) 23. (6-0) Boise State (beat Louisiana Tech 55-14)
(15) 24. (3-2) Oklahoma (lost to #8 Texas 10-28)
(---) 25. (5-1) Wisconsin (beat Northwestern 41-9)

Out:
(19) ---. (3-2) Florida State (lost to North Carolina State 20-24)

Any feedback on these rankings? I like that I ranked Georgia Tech for a couple of weeks before the AP polls did; they're up to 12th in my poll now at 5-1. The same goes for Missouri and Arkansas two weeks ago (they'll surely be ranked in the "real" polls after beating Auburn) and Rutgers three weeks ago. As much as I don't really like keeping a 4-2 team #11, I couldn't justify them dropping any lower considering both their losses were to top-10 teams.

[friday]

Well, I'm more or less out of my depth with college football, and I'd think Steve'd be the only other person with something valuable to contribute, but I'm guessing the only question this season is who OSU will play in the national championship, since that seems like a crapshoot right now. Every week I look in the polls now and it seems like a different team's at #2. I've kinda wanted to combine the points on the AP, USA Today and Harris polls just to see what that would look like from week to week. It kinda boggles the my mind that nobody seems to consider this, but that's probably because Ohio State leading all three by wide margins right now. At least it's not as predictable as last year, when it seemed like the top 5 was static wire-to-wire, until the Rose Bowl, anyway.

I'm also starting to take a passing interest in the welfare of Rutgers, since I may or may not, in a perfect world, be attending classes there by next fall.

[mtm4319]

(1) 1. (7-0) Ohio State (beat Michigan State 38-7)
(3) 2. (6-0) West Virginia (beat Syracuse 41-17)
(4) 3. (6-0) Southern California (beat Arizona State 28-21)
(5) 4. (7-0) Michigan (beat Penn State 17-10)
(6) 5. (6-1) Texas (beat Baylor 63-31)
(7) 6. (6-1) Auburn (beat #2 Florida 27-17)
(2) 7. (6-1) Florida (lost to #2 Auburn 27-17)
(8) 8. (5-1) Notre Dame (idle)
(9) 9. (6-0) Louisville (beat Cincinnati 23-17)
(10) 10. (5-1) Tennessee (idle)
(11) 11. (5-2) Louisiana State (beat Kentucky 49-0)
(12) 12. (5-1) Georgia Tech (idle)
(13) 13. (6-1) California (beat Washington State 21-3)
(14) 14. (5-1) Clemson (beat Temple 63-9)
(17) 15. (5-1) Arkansas (beat Southeast Missouri State 63-7)
(19) 16. (6-1) Oregon (beat UCLA 30-20)
(20) 17. (6-1) Nebraska (beat Kansas State 21-3)
(21) 18. (6-0) Rutgers (beat Navy 34-0)
(23) 19. (6-0) Boise State (plays New Mexico State Sunday)
(---) 20. (5-1) Boston College (beat #16 Virginia Tech 22-3)
(25) 21. (6-1) Wisconsin (beat Minnesota 48-12)
(---) 22. (6-1) Pittsburgh (beat Central Florida 52-7)
(24) 23. (4-2) Oklahoma (beat Iowa State 34-9)
(---) 24. (6-1) Wake Forest (beat North Carolina State 25-23)
(---) 25. (6-1) Texas A&M (beat #22 Missouri 25-19)

Off:
(15) ---. (5-2) Georgia (lost to Vanderbilt 22-24)
(16) ---. (4-2) Virginia Tech (lost to Boston College 3-22)
(18) ---. (5-2) Iowa (lost to Indiana 28-31)
(22) ---. (6-1) Missouri (lost to Texas A&M 19-25)

I dropped Georgia off from #15 because they've absolutely sucked their last 4 games: rallying to edge Colorado 14-13; beating Ole Miss 14-9; getting walloped by Tennessee 51-33; and now this.

Virginia Tech is also done, coinciding with BC's return to the poll.

Pitt vs. Rutgers will be a good game next week, matching up the "other two" good teams in the Big East.

Oklahoma only moves up 1 spot because of the loss of Adrian Peterson (Edit: I figured it was a celebratory move, but after watching the replay it was really just a bad break.)

I favored Wake Forest over Texas A&M for the #24 spot because they've played a tougher schedule. Don't forget, the Demon Deacons would be 7-0 if not for a fourth-quarter collapse against a very good Clemson team. The Aggies have played a very soft schedule.

[mtm4319]

(1) 1. (8-0) Ohio State (beat Indiana 44-3)
(2) 2. (7-0) West Virginia (beat Connecticut 37-11)
(3) 3. (6-0) Southern California (idle)
(4) 4. (8-0) Michigan (beat Iowa 20-6)
(5) 5. (7-1) Texas (beat #17 Nebraska 22-20)
(6) 6. (7-1) Auburn (beat Tulane 28-13)
(7) 7. (6-1) Florida (idle)
(8) 8. (6-1) Notre Dame (beat UCLA 20-17)
(9) 9. (7-0) Louisville (beat Syracuse 28-13)
(10) 10. (6-1) Tennessee (beat Alabama 16-13)
(14) 11. (6-1) Clemson (beat #12 Georgia Tech 31-7)
(11) 12. (6-2) Louisiana State (beat Fresno State)
(13) 13. (7-1) California (beat Washington 31-24 [OT])
(15) 14. (6-1) Arkansas (beat Mississippi 38-3)
(18) 15. (7-0) Rutgers (beat #22 Pittsburgh 20-10)
(19) 16. (8-0) Boise State (beat New Mexico State 40-28; beat Idaho 42-26)
(20) 17. (6-1) Boston College (beat Florida State 24-19)
(21) 18. (7-1) Wisconsin (beat Purdue 24-3)
(12) 19. (5-2) Georgia Tech (lost to #14 Clemson 7-31)
(17) 20. (6-2) Nebraska (lost to #5 Texas 20-22)
(23) 21. (5-2) Oklahoma (beat Colorado 24-3)
(24) 22. (6-1) Wake Forest (idle)
(25) 23. (7-1) Texas A&M (beat Oklahoma State 34-33 [OT])
(--) 24. (7-1) Missouri (beat Kansas State 41-21)
(16) 25. (6-2) Oregon (lost to Washington State 23-34)

Off:
(22) --. (6-2) Pittsburgh (lost to #18 Rutgers 10-20)

I'm making an early call of LSU over Fresno State. As I'm writing this, LSU leads 31-6 in the 4th quarter. They slip a spot, but only due to Clemson's impressive victory over Georgia Tech.

Normally a 6-2 SEC team would be in the poll, but Georgia might be the worst 6-2 SEC team I've ever seen. If they beat Florida next week, sure, they'll be back in the poll. But for now it's Missouri re-entering and Oregon staying in despite their loss to Washington State.

[mtm4319]

(LW) TW. (W-L) Team (what they did this week)	Next week's opponent
(1) 1. (9-0) Ohio State (beat Minnesota 44-0)	@ Illinois (2-7)
(2) 2. (7-0) West Virginia (idle)	@ #8 Louisville (7-0)
(4) 3. (9-0) Michigan (beat Northwestern 17-3)	vs. Ball State (3-6)
(5) 4. (8-1) Texas (beat Texas Tech 35-31)	vs. Oklahoma State (5-3)
(6) 5. (8-1) Auburn (beat Mississippi 23-17)	vs. Arkansas State (5-3)
(7) 6. (7-1) Florida (beat Georgia 21-14)	@ Vanderbilt (4-5)
(8) 7. (7-1) Notre Dame (beat Navy 38-14)	vs. North Carolina (1-7)
(9) 8. (7-0) Louisville (idle)	vs. #2 West Virginia (7-0)
(10) 9. (7-1) Tennessee (beat South Carolina 31-24)	vs. #11 LSU (6-2)
(3) 10. (6-1) Southern California (lost to Oregon State 31-33)	@ Stanford (0-8)
(12) 11. (6-2) Louisiana State (idle)	@ #9 Tennessee (7-1)
(13) 12. (7-1) California (idle)	vs. UCLA (4-4)
(14) 13. (7-1) Arkansas (beat Louisiana-Monroe 44-10)	@ South Carolina (5-3)
(15) 14. (7-0) Rutgers (idle)	vs. Connecticut (Sun.)
(16) 15. (8-0) Boise State (idle)	vs. Fresno State (1-6)
(17) 16. (7-1) Boston College (beat Buffalo 41-0)	@ #21 Wake Forest (7-1)
(18) 17. (8-1) Wisconsin (beat Illinois 30-24)	vs. Penn State (6-3)
(11) 18. (6-2) Clemson (lost to Virginia Tech 7-24)	vs. Maryland (6-2)
(19) 19. (6-2) Georgia Tech (beat Miami 30-23)	@ North Carolina State (3-5)
(21) 20. (6-2) Oklahoma (beat #24 Missouri 26-10)	@ #22 Texas A&M (7-1)
(__) 21. (6-2) Virginia Tech (beat #11 Clemson 24-7)	@ Miami (5-3)
(22) 22. (7-1) Wake Forest (beat North Carolina 24-17)	vs. #16 Boston College (7-1)
(23) 23. (8-1) Texas A&M (beat Baylor 31-21)	vs. #20 Oklahoma (6-2)
(25) 24. (6-2) Oregon (beat Portland State 55-12)	vs. Washington (4-5)
(__) 25. (6-2) Brigham Young (beat Air Force 33-14)	@ Colorado State (4-4)

Off this week:
(20) __. (6-3) Nebraska (lost to Oklahoma State 29-41)
(24) __. (7-2) Missouri (lost to #21 Oklahoma 10-26)

Boy, is that ACC muddled. Boston College looks to be the class of the league, having defeated both Clemson and Virginia Tech. Five of the bottom 10 belong to that conference, with Maryland sitting just outside the poll after their win over FSU. Maryland lost out to BYU this week for #25 because the Terps have still only defeated one I-A opponent by a touchdown or more. They'll have their shot at national respect next week, though, when they visit Clemson. On the other hand, BYU blasted Tulsa (a team that could enter the national polls this week), ended TCU's winning streak, and played BC tough in Boston.

USC falls to #10 after their fifth straight underwhelming performance; this time it finally bit 'em in the butt.

[mtm4319]

(LW) TW. (W-L) Team
( 1) 1. (10-0) Ohio State (beat Illinois 17-10)
( 3) 2. (10-0) Michigan (beat Ball State 34-26)
( 8) 3. ( 8-0) Louisville (beat #2 West Virginia 44-34)
( 4) 4. ( 9-1) Texas (beat Oklahoma State 36-10)
( 5) 5. ( 9-1) Auburn (beat Arkansas State 27-0)
( 6) 6. ( 8-1) Florida (beat Vanderbilt 25-19)
( 7) 7. ( 8-1) Notre Dame (beat North Carolina 45-26)
( 2) 8. ( 7-1) West Virginia (lost to #8 Louisville 34-44)
(10) 9. ( 7-1) Southern California (beat Stanford 42-0)
(11) 10. ( 7-2) Louisiana State (beat #9 Tennessee 28-24)
(12) 11. ( 8-1) California (beat UCLA 38-24)
(13) 12. ( 8-1) Arkansas (beat South Carolina 26-20)
( 9) 13. ( 7-2) Tennessee (lost to #11 LSU 24-28)
(14) 14. ( 8-0) Rutgers (beat Connecticut 24-13)
(15) 15. ( 9-0) Boise State (beat Fresno State 45-21)
(17) 16. ( 9-1) Wisconsin (beat Penn State 13-3)
(19) 17. ( 7-2) Georgia Tech (beat North Carolina State 31-23)
(20) 18. ( 7-2) Oklahoma (beat #22 Texas A&M 17-16)
(22) 19. ( 8-1) Wake Forest (beat #16 Boston College 21-14)
(21) 20. ( 7-2) Virginia Tech (beat Miami 17-10)
(16) 21. ( 7-2) Boston College (lost to #22 Wake Forest 14-21)
(24) 22. ( 7-2) Oregon (beat Washington 34-14)
(25) 23. ( 7-2) Brigham Young (beat Colorado State 24-3)
(--) 24. ( 7-2) Maryland (beat #18 Clemson 13-12)
(--) 25. ( 7-3) Nebraska (beat Missouri 34-20)

[mtm4319]

01 01 (11-0) Ohio State
02 02 (11-0) Michigan
06 03 (9-1) Florida
07 04 (9-1) Notre Dame
09 05 (8-1) USC
12 06 (9-1) Arkansas
14 07 (9-0) Rutgers
03 08 (8-1) Louisville
08 09 (8-1) West Virginia
04 10 (9-2) Texas
10 11 (8-2) LSU
16 12 (10-1) Wisconsin
15 13 (10-0) Boise State
05 14 (9-2) Auburn
17 15 (8-2) Georgia Tech
19 16 (9-1) Wake Forest
18 17 (8-2) Oklahoma
11 18 (8-2) California
20 19 (8-2) Virginia Tech
21 20 (8-2) Boston College
13 21 (7-3) Tennessee
23 22 (8-2) BYU
24 23 (8-2) Maryland
25 24 (8-3) Nebraska
-- 25 (8-3) Clemson

Off:
22 -- (7-3) Oregon

Easily the biggest shakeup in the rankings this season. My #3, #4, and #5 teams all lost, and my #6 team should have.

First things first: Yes, I did call Georgia possibly the worst 6-2 SEC team I've ever seen. Well, Auburn may now be the worst 9-2 SEC team I've ever seen. I wasn't able to watch the game, but I didn't need to. They don't deserve any kind of BCS at-large bid now, and will probably be headed to the Cotton Bowl or Chick-Fil-A Bowl.

By virtue of actually winning, Florida moves up to #3; however, it could be considered a "vacuum effect" as The Max likes to call it.

#4 Notre Dame and #5 USC will play each other in two weeks; even if each team wins its next game, one will fall from the top 6 after this matchup. If #6 Arkansas defeats Mississippi State next week, the same will hold true for either Arkansas or Florida (in the SEC Championship Game). Arkansas made such a big jump for two reasons: (1) of course, its convincing win over #13 Tennessee, but (2) by reconsidering its 50-14 loss to USC. The Razorbacks' Darren McFadden, clearly one of the best players in the SEC, was far less than 100% while recovering from a broken toe. Have him at full strength and who knows what happens. USC moved up because, after Rutgers' defeat of Louisville, I think considerably less of Louisville and slightly less of the Big East as a whole. I now think that USC could beat any team in the Big East.

Now to Rutgers at #7. (Rutgers-Louisville-West Virginia is the only real way to rank the teams right now, by the way.) Consider the following potential outcomes of future games, all of which are reasonable:

• California defeats USC.
• USC defeats Notre Dame.
• LSU defeats Arkansas.
• Arkansas defeats Florida.
• Ohio State defeats Michigan, soundly.
• Rutgers defeats Cincinnati, Syracuse, and West Virginia.

I have just described a scenario under which there would be a huge outcry for Rutgers to make the national championship game. What are the chances of this? Maybe 5%. But that's still about 4.99999% greater than the number at the beginning of the season.

West Virginia and LSU, despite comfortable victories, get pushed back a spot each at the expense of conference foes Rutgers and Arkansas. Wisconsin leapfrogs Boise State after the Blueturfs' near-loss to San Jose State. Wake Forest leapfrogs Oklahoma after Wake ran roughshod over FSU in the Doak. The rest is pretty much status quo.

--------

Oh, and did I nail this or what?

September 24, 2006, 12:10 am:

Rutgers might make into one or both of the "real" top 25 rankings this week; watch out for them. They've been on the brink for about the past 3 years (going 5-7, 4-7, and 7-5). Here's their remaining schedule:

09/29 @ South Florida
10/07 [off]
10/14 @ Navy
10/21 @ Pittsburgh
10/29 Connecticut
11/04 [off]
11/09 Louisville
11/18 @ Cincinnati
11/25 Syracuse
12/02 @ #4 West Virginia

They could conceivably be 8-0 heading into the home contest against Louisville. At Pitt will be a tough one, though.

[crash46]

Hi. I'm gonna try and rank 'em myself for the first time, and I'll double it up to make up for not even trying this all year long. No peeking at existing rankings for me...all conference standings and schedules.

1. Ohio State (11-0)
2. Michigan (11-0)
3. Florida (9-1)
4. USC (8-1)
5. Arkansas (9-1)
6. Notre Dame (9-1)
7. Texas (9-2)
8. Rutgers (9-0)
9. Louisville (8-1)
10. California (8-2)
11. West Virginia (8-1)
12. Oklahoma (8-2)
13. Boise State (10-0)
14. Wake Forest (9-1)
15. Wisconsin (10-1)
16. Auburn (9-2)
17. LSU (8-2)
18. Georgia Tech (8-2)
19. Boston College (8-2)
20. Byu (8-2)
21. Maryland (8-2)
22. Virginia Tech (8-2)
23. Hawaii (8-2)
24. Tennessee (7-3)
25. Tcu (7-2)

26. Oregon (7-3)
27. Clemson (8-3)
28. Nebraska (8-3)
29. Oregon State (6-4)
30. Houston (8-3)
31. Texas A&M (8-3)
32. Kansas State (7-4)
33. South Florida (7-3)
34. Penn State (7-4)
35. Georgia (7-4)
36. Central Michigan (7-3)
37. Purdue (7-4)
38. Tulsa (7-3)
39. Missouri (7-3)
40. Ohio (7-3)
41. Kentucky (6-4)
42. Arizona State (6-4)
43. Nevada (7-3)
44. Iowa (6-5)
45. Navy (7-3)
46. Pittsburgh (6-4)
47. Western Michigan (7-3)
48. Utah (6-4)
49. Oklahoma State (6-4)
50. Arizona (5-5)

Top 2's a no brainer. Whoever loses the game next Saturday I think should be #2 on account of still being the most impressive 1-loss team over all the others (if the 1 loss is to the #1 team in the country, it eliminates all arguments except Notre Dame and Wisconsin, and I'd take either of the current top 2 over them anyday).

3-5 were easy. It was hard putting ND at #6, as the fact that they should have 4 losses now (I can let 1 close call slide, but not 3), and that it seems like they're trying harder to win the Commander-in-Chief's trophy over scheduling for a national championship overrides the fact that they placed Michigan and USC on their schedule. Get a conference, then we'll talk, ND.

I didn't kill Texas too badly because losing to Ohio St. is excusable, and they weren't at 100% at K-State. I don't like giving too much credit to all these teams who were nobodies a year ago, scheduled just to make the Meineke Chicken Bowl, only to nearly run the table. Get in line, Big East.

24 teams have 2 losses or less, and I think Tennessee is an easy pick for the best 3 loss team, so that's the top 25.

Maybe at the end of the year it might be fun to rank all 119.

[mtm4319]

Ooh, nice.

I'd go with South Carolina as the best 5-5 team. Arizona deserves props, but all 5 of SC's losses have come in the SEC to teams with 7 wins or more; 4 of those are to teams that are currently ranked (all of them were in the top 12 at game time) and by a combined margin of 21 points. They've pretty much beaten who they were supposed to beat and lost against teams to whom they were expected to lose, but have come quite close in many of them.

As you may expect from my rankings, I would switch Cal and LSU.

One more thing that came to my mind that isn't related directly to your rankings: last night, ESPN Radio called Nebraska's victory over Texas A&M [paraphrasing] "a big upset, or perhaps not so much of an upset". This, presumably, because Texas A&M was ranked and Nebraska was not. The reverse was true in my poll, thus I did not consider it an upset at all.

[mtm4319]

01 01 (12-0) Ohio State
02 02 (11-1) Michigan
03 03 (10-1) Florida
05 04 (9-1) USC
04 05 (10-1) Notre Dame
06 06 (10-1) Arkansas
08 07 (9-1) Louisville
09 08 (9-1) West Virginia
10 09 (9-2) Texas
11 10 (9-2) LSU
12 11 (11-1) Wisconsin
13 12 (11-0) Boise State
14 13 (10-2) Auburn
15 14 (9-2) Georgia Tech
17 15 (9-2) Oklahoma
07 16 (9-1) Rutgers
19 17 (9-2) Virginia Tech
20 18 (8-2) Boston College
21 19 (8-3) Tennessee
22 20 (9-2) BYU
24 21 (8-3) Nebraska
16 22 (9-2) Wake Forest
18 23 (8-3) California
25 24 (8-3) Clemson
-- 25 (9-2) Hawaii

Off:
23 -- (8-3) Maryland

Quickly: While Michigan is still probably the best one-loss team, I don't think they should play for the championship. If they're allowed to play OSU again, then Saturday's game will have meant nothing. And while I didn't watch most of the OSU-UM game, it sure didn't seem to measure up to last year's USC-Texas game as a classic. For one, it was one of the most anticlimactic 1 vs. 2 games I've ever seen (I was able to watch the last 2:30 or so -- a futile onside kick, a first down, and Brent Musberger with little excitement in his voice). And a quick check of the box score reveals only 1 lead change (USC and Texas had 5); OSU led for the final 42:29, while USC's biggest lead time was 18:48 and Texas's 9:21. When CBS broke in to show OSU's long touchdown run for the 35-24 lead early in the third quarter, combined with the other highlights I'd seen thus far, I remarked that it seemed like "Big East football" [or Pac-10, or WAC, etc.] -- not that I would be correct in that assumption, but people that call it the "game of the century" are mistaken.

[crash46]

Totally agree; Texas/USC '06 was the football game of our generation. OSU/Michigan '06 was just a great game to watch. Not only was there only one lead change, if I remember right, after Ohio State went up 21-7, there was only one more possession the rest of the game where Michigan had the ball with the chance to tie the game, and I think they went 3 and out on that possession. It was not a close game, at least not nearly as close as the final score indicated. Just a highly entertaining game of catch-up based on how competitive both teams were when they were the top ranked teams in the country.

That's why I thought of it as a comfortable win, meaning, you make me the head coach of a BCS conference football team and give me 13 games and 13 onside kicks attempted by my opponents, and I'm comfortable with my chances of winning the national championship.

[mtm4319]

01 01 (12-0) Ohio State
02 02 (11-1) Michigan
04 03 (10-1) USC
03 04 (11-1) Florida
07 05 (10-1) Louisville
10 06 (10-2) LSU
06 07 (10-2) Arkansas
11 08 (11-1) Wisconsin
12 09 (12-0) Boise State
15 10 (10-2) Oklahoma
13 11 (10-2) Auburn
05 12 (10-2) Notre Dame
16 13 (10-1) Rutgers
08 14 (9-2) West Virginia
17 15 (10-2) Virginia Tech
09 16 (9-3) Texas
21 17 (9-3) Nebraska
19 18 (9-3) Tennessee
22 19 (10-2) Wake Forest
20 20 (10-2) BYU
-- 21 (9-3) Texas A&M
14 22 (9-3) Georgia Tech
23 23 (8-3) California
25 24 (9-2) Hawaii*
18 25 (8-3) Boston College

Conference breakdown:
5 - SEC
4 - Big 12
4 - ACC
3 - Big Ten
3 - Big East
2 - Pac-10
2 - WAC
1 - MWC
1 - Independent

*Position dependent on them beating Purdue; they would be 10-2 with a win.

They've finally convinced me; USC is still the real deal. They jump Florida after their convincing win over Notre Dame. It's ridiculous that ND would still have a shot at a BCS bowl (IMO anyway, as shown by my rankings), but they'll likely still make it.

It might be an SEC bias, but I'd take Arkansas 7 times out of 10 over Wisconsin. I'm giving Oklahoma more respect now because they really should be 11-1 if it weren't for a certain officiating crew.

I have no idea which is the best team in the ACC now. All 4 of the currently-ranked teams (plus unranked Clemson, who ironically grabbed the highest ranking I've given an ACC team this year, #11) have looked like the best in the league at one point (although Wake Forest was never the highest-ranked team in the ACC, being one spot behind Georgia Tech one week). Now it's Virginia Tech, who'd have thunk it.

Bowl projections:

BCS Title Game: Ohio State vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. Notre Dame
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Louisville
Orange Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Boise State

[jcmf3]

Georgia Tech in the Gator Bowl! (Eh, you gotta take what you can get, right?).

[mtm4319]

Wowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww........