College Football 2005-06

[mtm4319]

The regular season is winding down, and only a handful of games are left before the bowls:

ACC Championship Game - Virginia Tech vs. Florida State
Big 12 Championship Game - Texas vs. Colorado
C-USA Championship Game - Central Florida vs. Tulsa
MAC Championship Game - Northern Illinois vs. Akron
SEC Championship Game - LSU vs. Georgia
USC vs. UCLA
Army vs. Navy
West Virginia vs. South Florida
Louisville vs. UConn
Fresno State vs. Louisiana Tech
Hawaii vs. San Diego State
Florida International vs. Middle Tennessee

Maybe we can do a contest to see who picks the most games correctly this week (although I'm not totally sure how many people here follow college football), and again for the bowls.

Speaking of the bowls, a couple of games are already set.

Insight: Arizona State vs. Rutgers
Poinsettia: Colorado State vs. Navy
Rose: USC vs. Texas


(...just kidding on that last one.)

A few more bowl matchups are half-complete:

Gator: Louisville
Liberty: Fresno State
Houston: TCU
Emerald: Utah
Las Vegas: BYU
GMAC: Toledo
New Orleans ("Lafayette"): Arkansas State

Notre Dame is basically assured a BCS bowl; since the Fiesta has first choice after the top 2, the SEC champion, and the ACC champion are picked, they will likely take Notre Dame. Ohio State is projected to be the second at-large team.

[crash46]

Yeah, I would have started this myself, except that I'd probably be one of like 2 or 3 people that would care. I'm all for a bowl predictions contest (I won $75 for second place in a similar contest a year ago at work).

You going to that GMAC game again this year, Matt?

I'm happy and relieved that Toledo was able to get an invite without having played in the MAC championship game, even though I thought pretty clearly that they'd be a better draw than the loser of NIU/Akron. I won't be able to go to the game (unless I eat a ton of Wendy's from now til December 21), but it will be interesting to finally play a bowl game outside of Detroit. I guess they'd play the loser of the UCF/Tulsa game.

I've been hoping for weeks now that Ohio State and Notre Dame would match up in a bowl game, because I think OSU would expose the Irish for everything they are(n't). But now that the Buckeyes have passed Notre Dame in the polls, that doesn't mean so much to me now, because people seem to have figured out what I already knew. Still, it'd be a fun matchup, and I'd prefer it to any other BCS contender outside of the top two. The Fiesta Bowl has wanted OSU back ever since that 2002 game where 9/10ths of the seats were occupied by Buckeye fans. I don't think they'd be able to repeat that against Notre Dame fans, though.

[mtm4319]

crash46 said:

You going to that GMAC game again this year, Matt?

I'm not sure. Some friends and I got free tickets to the game last year, and otherwise we wouldn't have went (it was cold and rainy, and despite the exciting first half of 35-28, we left at the half).

crash46 said:

I won't be able to go to the game (unless I eat a ton of Wendy's from now til December 21), but it will be interesting to finally play a bowl game outside of Detroit.

Well, you could alternately go on eBay and just buy the coupons (a set of 64, good for one round-trip, goes for about $75-80).

crash46 said:

I guess they'd play the loser of the UCF/Tulsa game.

Yeah, SI.com has Tulsa penciled in as the opponent.

[The Duality Of Man]

Oregon > Ohio State and Notre Dame.

That's all I have to say on the subject.

[slinky]

mtm4319 said:

Speaking of the bowls, a couple of games are already set.

Rose: USC vs. Texas

UCLA has a great shot against USC this weekend. Texas should have no trouble with Colorado, though I'm sure both teams will be fired up after lackluster performances last week.

I'll also enjoy VT spanking Florida State, just because it's fun to watch the Seminoles lose.

For winners in the games I care about I pick:

VT, Texas, LSU

(all very daring picks I know... it might be more interesting to pick for/against the spread)

... and UCLA with the upset, finally ending USC's streak. I'll be rooting hard for these guys, hoping they can put my Nittany Lions in the Rose.

[The Duality Of Man]

UCLA doesn't have any better of a chance of beating USC than Oregon did, and Oregon beat UCLA last time I checked.

USC vs. Texas is the Rose Bowl, and that's the end of it.

I'd love to see an Oregon vs. Penn State rematch of the '95 Rose Bowl in the Fiesta, though that probably won't happen.

[slinky]

Oregon didn't play UCLA this year. UCLA's lone loss is to Arizona.

I could see the upset happening. USC looked weak, especially on defense, against Fresno State, and UCLA has been winning a lot of high-scoring games this year.

PSU's pretty much guaranteed a spot in the Orange if USC and Texas both win this weekend, so no, the Oregon rematch won't happen.

[crash46]

I will say this: If the at-large teams are Notre Dame and Oregon, I'll be more mad that Notre Dame was picked over Ohio State than Oregon. I didn't see the Ducks losing to any team of Michigan State's 5-6 caliber.

And if the Acc is as good as I'm always hearing it is, why do these mediocre Florida State teams continue to find the back door to the Acc Championship. Is there really no one else that could step up and finish ahead of them?

[The Duality Of Man]

Yeah, I guess I didn't remember right.

My bad.

;D

Though I will say that USC didn't necessarily look weak against Fresno State. But Fresno State is just a really good team in a lesser conference. If the Pac 10 ever expanded and that's just not going to happen, I'd love to have Fresno State in it.

Edit: The Pac 10 schedule will be much more interesting when all teams play each other round robin style starting next year. Who needs a confrence champion when you can just play all the teams in your confrence during the regular season to decide the best.

slinky said:

Oregon didn't play UCLA this year. UCLA's lone loss is to Arizona.

I could see the upset happening. USC looked weak, especially on defense, against Fresno State, and UCLA has been winning a lot of high-scoring games this year.

PSU's pretty much guaranteed a spot in the Orange if USC and Texas both win this weekend, so no, the Oregon rematch won't happen.

[slinky]

crash46 said:

I will say this: If the at-large teams are Notre Dame and Oregon, I'll be more mad that Notre Dame was picked over Ohio State than Oregon. I didn't see the Ducks losing to any team of Michigan State's 5-6 caliber.

I'd agree, but I can't see any possible way OSU will be passed over for the at-large spot.

It'll be the Ducks complaining about Notre Dame's overratedness, and rightfully so.

[mtm4319]

slinky said:

... and UCLA with the upset, finally ending USC's streak. I'll be rooting hard for these guys, hoping they can put my Nittany Lions in the Rose.

Doubt it'll happen if LSU beats Georgia. They're #3 in the BCS.

thedualityofman said:

Edit: The Pac 10 schedule will be much more interesting when all teams play each other round robin style starting next year. Who needs a confrence champion when you can just play all the teams in your confrence during the regular season to decide the best.

The problem with not having a conference championship game (or the benefit in the Pac 10's case) is not having to play an extra game -- which could result in an extra loss, which would result in their teams moved down in the BCS/national championship considerations. Imagine if USC played UCLA last week and Oregon in the championship game this week. That would make quite a bit of difference.

[crash46]

The other issue is, if Usc falls to Ucla, would the Trojans fall out of the top two? I think they wouldn't. I mean, what are the Bruins right now, #11? They'd obviously move up at least a few spots with a win over the #1 team, and with USC sitting with one loss to a top 10 ranked team, and essential domination of the rest of its schedule, I think they'd still look a little better than than Penn State and their one loss to a barely ranked Michigan team, or Lsu and their one loss to a mediocre Tennessee team.

I think they'll need Texas to be the one to lose, and I think Texas is the better team to begin with.

[slinky]

mtm4319 said:

Doubt it'll happen if LSU beats Georgia. They're #3 in the BCS.

Penn State is #3 in the BCS. LSU is #4 by a considerable margin- .0503. LSU is way behind PSU in the computer rankings, and that's mostly due to strength of schedule. Even a quality LSU win over Georgia won't make up for the more difficult conference schedule Penn State had to face.

Unless Penn State is punished by pollsters for having a bye week, which would be absolutely ridiculous, there's little chance LSU will end up above Penn State in the BCS.

thedualityofman said:

The problem with not having a conference championship game (or the benefit in the Pac 10's case) is not having to play an extra game -- which could result in an extra loss, which would result in their teams moved down in the BCS/national championship considerations. Imagine if USC played UCLA last week and Oregon in the championship game this week. That would make quite a bit of difference.

I like the conference championships because they bring the NCAA that much closer to having a playoff system, but I would have no problem abolishing them if the NCAA had an 8-team BCS playoff instead.

crash46 said:

The other issue is, if Usc falls to Ucla, would the Trojans fall out of the top two? I think they wouldn't. I mean, what are the Bruins right now, #11? They'd obviously move up at least a few spots with a win over the #1 team, and with USC sitting with one loss to a top 10 ranked team, and essential domination of the rest of its schedule, I think they'd still look a little better than than Penn State and their one loss to a barely ranked Michigan team, or Lsu and their one loss to a mediocre Tennessee team.

Consider strength of schedule though, since the computers always do, and occasionally the pollsters do as well. Wouldn't you say that the majority of teams Penn State has beaten are better than the majority of teams USC has beaten? The computers will give the edge to Penn State if USC falls.

To see just how much strength of schedule counts, consider this: Ohio State is #4 right now in the computer polls, above LSU and VT.

Also consider that late-season losses always hurt teams in the polls more than early-season losses do. Whether wrong or right, pollsters favor teams that are hot right now as opposed to teams that were hot a few weeks ago. If USC loses, they will drop at least to #3, and possibly further.

Don't take my word for it though. Pretty much every analyst has said PSU moves up if USC or Texas falls. For example, www.post-gazette.com/pg/05333/614046.stm

[mtm4319]

slinky said:

mtm4319 said:

Doubt it'll happen if LSU beats Georgia. They're #3 in the BCS.

Penn State is #3 in the BCS. LSU is #4 by a considerable margin- .0503. LSU is way behind PSU in the computer rankings, and that's mostly due to strength of schedule. Even a quality LSU win over Georgia won't make up for the more difficult conference schedule Penn State had to face.

Ahh, my mistake. I got confused with their poll ranking and didn't bother to check for sure.

slinky said:

I like the conference championships because they bring the NCAA that much closer to having a playoff system, but I would have no problem abolishing them if the NCAA had an 8-team BCS playoff instead.

Same here.

[mtm4319]

The winners are Florida State, Texas, Tulsa, Akron, Georgia, USC, Navy, West Virginia, Louisville, Louisiana Tech, and Florida International; Hawaii and San Diego State are still playing. LSU might have been bumped all the way down to the Peach Bowl, while Virginia Tech is headed to the Gator most likely.

[crash46]

Well, not all of us got the results we desired, but at least this last minute shakeup is going to put Ohio State into the Fiesta automatically with a #4 spot in the Bcs. Yeah I know they probably would have gotten in anyway, but I'd rather get in that way than to get in just on the basis of being the school that'd sell more tickets, like Notre Dame's about to be.

And it's Utep against Toledo in the GMAC bowl. Should be a pretty evenly matched game if you asked me, with two teams from similar conferences with the same record, and not really any marquee victories between the two.

[mtm4319]

crash46 said:

And it's Utep against Toledo in the GMAC bowl. Should be a pretty evenly matched game if you asked me, with two teams from similar conferences with the same record, and not really any marquee victories between the two.

And more importantly, Mike Price will get another chance to visit Arety's Angels.

[The Duality Of Man]

crash46 said:

Well, not all of us got the results we desired, but at least this last minute shakeup is going to put Ohio State into the Fiesta automatically with a #4 spot in the Bcs. Yeah I know they probably would have gotten in anyway, but I'd rather get in that way than to get in just on the basis of being the school that'd sell more tickets, like Notre Dame's about to be.

The scheduling geniuses at the U of Oregon, Ohio State, and Notre Dame should put up or shut up and schedule each other during the regular season one of these years.

Regardless of how high a two loss team is ranked, they're still not as good as a one loss team in my eyes.

[jcmf3]

Georgia Tech will be battling Utah in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco on December 29th! Road trip?